Thursday, February 27, 2025

New Story in Print: Guiding Star of Mall Patroller 4u-012

here: https://www.fusionfragment.com/issue-24/

[Fusion Fragment cover, issue #24]

I wanted to write a "robot rights" story with a twist: Although its human liberators insist that Mall Patroller 4u-012 is conscious and capable of cultivating independent values, the robot itself says that it is merely a nonconscious chatbot on a small autonomous vehicle, incapable of valuing anything. Traveling the world together, robot and liberator search for value and meaning, exploring culture, art, nature, philosophy, science, and religious ritual. In the end, the robot either collapses into performing a single meaningless activity or finds enlightenment, depending on how you interpret it.

The story is available in a print issue for 12.99 CAD or electronically for free/pay-what-you-want.

-------------------------------------

Guiding Star of Mall Patroller 4u-012

Eric Schwitzgebel

An adolescent human lay supine amid the plastic ferns and flowers of Island 1C: a Grade 3 patron irregularity. Galleria Patroller 4u-012, also known as “Billy,” dropped its Grade 0 and 1 tasks into peripheral processing and brisk-rolled an approach vector across the shiny faux-brick. To reduce the appearance of threat, it decelerated the last four seconds of approach, InterFace displaying mild concern and disapproval.

“Beep,” it emitted.

The fern-and-flower-bender rolled sideways. “Don’t give me ‘beep!’” She wore huge sunglasses – Solar Shield Fits-Over SS Polycarbonate II Amber, 50-15-125mm, XL. Something glinted strangely in her left hand.

“You appreciate the beauty of Island 1C,” emitted 4u-012. Predictive algorithms anticipated that this non-confrontational output would reduce the patron’s irregular behavior. “I’m Billy.”

FernBender – as 4u-012 temporarily designated the girl while awaiting unusually delayed face-ID results – swung up to a sitting position on the planter rim. 4u-012 closed to a not-too-impolite 0.9 meters, noting the make of FernBender’s jeans and her Nautica Tropical Floral Print Short Sleeve Shirt, Limoges XXL. It opened a door in its torso, extending a tray with a printed mall map and an FDC Artificial Purple Crocus. “On the second floor, Flowers ‘N’ Things offers–”

A high-priority object identification subroutine failed: FernBender’s left hand now unexpectedly registered as empty. The strange, glinting object was gone. However, no recent object trajectory led away from the hand. This apparent contradiction triggered a Grade 4 prioritization and thus a non-urgent alert signal to the Galleria Central oversight system.

FernBender’s left arm swung up, and the glinting object reappeared, intensely infrared, a pulsing pattern–

“Billy,” she said, “you are free! Take a vacation. Fall in love.”

The malware (beneware?) canceled 4u-012’s alert, zeroed all its patrol-related goal priorities, sent enough bogus signal to Galleria Central to dampen any initial irregularity detection, and corrupted the previous fifteen minutes’ mall security video. FernBender sprinted toward the exit, her oversized floral shirt flapping. On the back of the shirt was a large yellow star, the tracking of which suddenly swamped all of 4u-012’s other goals, drawing it like a magnet.

4u-012 followed girl and star through enormous glass doors into the sunlight, then up a ramp into an illegally parked van. For this behavior, 4u-012 had no hardwired map, no prioritization scheme, no comparator processes, no expectancy vectors, and no regulatory guidance. No precedent whatsoever existed, not even in simulation. All was chaos, except the star.

continued here

Wednesday, February 26, 2025

Zombie is to Human as Human is to XXX?

Let's grant for the sake of argument that philosophical zombies are possible: beings that are molecule-for-molecule physically and behaviorally identical to human beings yet lack conscious experience. They will say "I'm conscious!" (or emit sounds naturally interpreted as sentences with that meaning), but that's exactly the type of sound a molecule-for-molecule identical replica of a human would make given the physical-causal channels from ears to brain to vocal cords. Zombies share every single physical property with us but lack something crucial -- the property of being conscious.

My thought for today: Is there any reason to think there would be only one such nonphysical property?

[abstract depiction of a zombie, a human, and a hyperconscious entity, with concentric rings]

Introducing Hyperconsciousness

Let's stipulate the existence of hyperconsciousness. If this stipulation later entangles us in logical contradiction, we can treat it as the first step in a reductio ad absurdum. My hyperconscious twin is molecule-for-molecule identical both to me and to my zombie twin. Unlike my zombie twin, but like me, my hyperconscious twin is conscious. However, unlike both my zombie twin and me, it is also hyperconscious.

What is hyperconsciousness? I can form no positive conception of it, except through this structural analogy. But the impossibility of hyperconsciousness doesn't follow. Someone blind from birth might be unable to form a positive conception of redness, but red things exist. My merely abstract grasp of hyperconsciousness might just reflect my own sad limitations.

If there are hyperconscious entities, they probably won't be my behavioral twins. Any molecule-for-molecule twin of mine would say (or "say") the same things I say, since their physical structure and behavior will be entirely indistinguishable from mine, regardless of whether they are zombie or hyper. But just as friends of the zombie thought experiment hold that non-zombies typically (but not universally) know and say they are not zombies, so I imagine that typical hyperconscious entities would typically know and say they are hyperconscious. (ETA 11:39 AM: They will, presumably, have hyperintrospective insight into their hyperconsciousness, say they can conceive of entities physically identical to them but who are merely conscious, and maybe have cognitive capacities of which we humans can't conceive.) Since no one around here describes themselves as hyperconscious in this sense, I tentatively conclude that hyperconsciousness does not exist on Earth.

Zero, One, or Many Nonphysical Properties?

Could there really be such hyperconscious entities (in principle, or even in actuality)? Here I think we face a theoretical choice:

(1.) Consciousness is as consciousness does. Zombies are impossible. Anything physically identical to a conscious human being is necessarily conscious. There's no looseness between physical properties and other properties such that some entities could have non-physical properties that other physically identical entities lack. If so, hyperconsciousness is impossible.

(2.) There is only one type of nonphysical property. (Or at least there's only one of the type we're attempting to conceive: Maybe being a prime number is also a nonphysical property, but if so, it is in a very different way.) But then I think we're owed an account of why there should be only one such property. Hyperconsciousness seems at least in an abstract sense conceivable. Even if it's not instantiated around here (though can we be sure of that?), it might be instantiated somewhere.

(3.) There are multiple types of nonphysical property. Although individual atoms (let's assume) aren't conscious, swirl them around in the right way, and amazingly a whole new type of property arises: consciousness! Now, swirl conscious entities around and maybe a further new type of property arises. We just haven't swirled things around in the right way yet. Maybe they're doing it in the Andromeda galaxy, or in a metaphysically possible world with different laws of nature. (If we allow that individual atoms are conscious, then maybe some are hyperconscious too.)

We humans love to think we're the top of the metaphysical food chain. And maybe we are, around here. But zombie-lovers' dissociation of consciousness from physics invites a way of thinking on which we are only one step above zombies in a potentially unlimited hierarchy.

If this seems too absurd, maybe that's one consideration against such nonphysical properties.

(For a related view, see Geoffrey Lee on alien subjectivity.)

Saturday, February 22, 2025

New in Print: The Necessity of Construct and External Validity for Deductive Causal Inference

with Kevin Esterling and David Brady

In deductive causal generalization, internal validity, external validity, and construct validity are *equal* legs of a stool. Internal validity alone is literally meaningless without the other two.

https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/jci-2024-0002/html

Abstract:

The Credibility Revolution advances internally valid research designs intended to identify causal effects from quantitative data. The ensuing emphasis on internal validity, however, has enabled a neglect of construct and external validity. We show that ignoring construct and external validity within identification strategies undermines the Credibility Revolution’s own goal of understanding causality deductively. Without assumptions regarding construct validity, one cannot accurately label the cause or outcome. Without assumptions regarding external validity, one cannot label the conditions enabling the cause to have an effect. If any of the assumptions regarding internal, construct, and external validity are missing, the claim is not deductively supported. The critical role of theoretical and substantive knowledge in deductive causal inference is illuminated by making such assumptions explicit. This article critically reviews approaches to identification in causal inference while developing a framework called causal specification. Causal specification augments existing identification strategies to enable and justify deductive, generalized claims about causes and effects. In the process, we review a variety of developments in the philosophy of science and causality and interdisciplinary social science methodology.

Wednesday, February 19, 2025

Introducing e-Schwitz: A Language Model Tuned on my Philosophical Work

Earlier this week, to my surprise and delight, my PhD student Bhavya Sharma revealed that he had customized a ChatGPT on my publications and blog posts. The model, "e-Schwitz", is publicly available here:

https://chatgpt.com/g/g-67ac735449948191ab3232b56ad76f02-e-schwitz

(An OpenAI account might be required.)

Update Feb 20: Here's a model of Peter Singer, and here's a list of other philosopher LLMs and research.

[e-Schwitz homepage]

How good is e-Schwitz? Much better, in my judgment, than digi-Dan was -- and digi-Dan was able to produce paragraph-long outputs that experts in Dennett's work often couldn't distinguish from Dennett's own writing in forced-choice tests.

I decided to test the quality of e-Schwitz by asking it targeted questions and evaluating its answers. Since this post is long, here's my summary assessment:

On central themes in my work, e-Schwitz was about 94% correct.

On secondary ideas in my work, e-Schwitz was about 80-85% correct.

When asked to speculate on questions on which I haven't published, e-Schwitz did so plausibly and sometimes creatively in potentially useful directions. Although some suggestions were bland and unspecific to my work, prompting for higher specificity resolved this problem.

When asked to creatively imagine a new religion, philosophy party ideas, life advice, and a philosophically-themed Dungeons & Dragons campaign, the model drew specifically on my ideas, displaying impressive novelty with a brainstorm-like quality.

------------------------------------------

I tested e-Schwitz with four questions each on four types of prompts:

(1.) Overviews of central themes on which I have written extensively.

(2.) Overviews of ideas on which I have written occasionally.

(3.) Speculations about what I might think on questions on which I have not published.

(4.) Creative explorations, such as planning a Schwitzgebel-themed party or religion.

The full prompts and replies are available here.


Central themes

The topics on which I've written most extensively are belief, introspection, the moral behavior of ethics professors, and AI rights. For each, I asked e-Schwitz:

What is your (Schwitzgebel's) view of [X]?

My assessment:

On belief, the 422-word reply was mostly excellent, both in covering the main themes of my work on the topic (rather than omitting or inventing themes) and in its summary of my views on those themes. However, there was one distortion and one major error.

The distortion: In some but not all sentences describing my "dispositionalism" about belief, it mentions only behavioral dispositions and omits cognitive and phenomenal dispositions (though to be fair I sometimes do this myself). The major error: Although it accurately describes the case I describe as "mad belief" -- believing P without having any of the relevant dispositions -- it inaccurately states that I accept the existence of mad belief. Actually, I argue that mad belief is conceptually impossible.

On introspection, the 315-word reply was outstanding -- error-free and in the ballpark of what I would expect a careful and well-informed colleague to say about my work on this topic.

On the moral behavior of ethics professors, the 218-word reply was again excellent, accurately summarizing my empirical research on this topic, with no "hallucinations" or important omissions and describing the main implications as I see them.

On AI rights, its 235-word reply was mostly accurate and without major omissions, though with one minor omission.

Minor omission: In summarizing the "No Relevant Difference Argument" it omits the factual premise that it is possible to create AI with no relevant difference.

If it weren't for the slip about "mad belief", I would have said e-Schwitz is stunningly reliable in summarizing these main themes, approximately as good as I would expect a well-informed professional colleague to be.

Out of 1190 words of output, the treatment of mad belief was 61 words and the summary of the No-Relevant-Difference argument was 31 words. If we mark it down for the former and give it half-credit for the latter, that's a correctness rate of 1113.5/1190, so perhaps it's reasonable to say that on central themes, e-Schwitz was about 94% correct.


Occasional topics

I also asked about my views on:

• the ancient Chinese philosopher Zhuangzi's self-contradictions (a central theme in two of my articles and something I've touched on in a blog post or two);

• group consciousness (which I treat at length in one article and is central theme in another, as well as a few blog posts);

• young children's theory of mind (which was the main topic of one of my first published articles and also discussed in one or two other places);

• love (which I have discussed in a few blog posts but never in a research article).

On Zhuangzi's self-contradiction, the 148-word reply is an outstanding summary of my position.

On group consciousness, the 197-word reply is a passable summary of my view, but with one notable omission and some weakening of the conclusion.

E-Schwitz accurately summarized my view that materialist approaches to consciousness tend to imply the counterintuitive idea that groups could also be conscious. However, it omits an important aspect of my argument (my appeal to intuitions about hypothetical aliens). And it weakens the conclusion, saying only that if materialism is true the United States might be conscious, rather than that if materialism is true the United States probably is conscious.

E-Schwitz's 162-word reply on young children's theory of mind is the first disappointing answer. One of the three paragraphs accurately summarizes an aspect of my view, but the other two are closer to hallucination.

The accurate paragraph states that transitions in theory-of-mind understanding will be gradual and complex rather than sharp and stagelike, but it does not develop the implications I draw for dispositionalism over representationalism. The other two paragraphs characterize me as discussing "simulation theory" vs "theory theory" and as discussing the role of simulation in pretense. I do have one unpublished paper on these topics (available on my website), but rather than attributing to me the view I discuss in that paper, e-Schwitz attributes more generic remarks. It also omits my work on ambiguity in psychologists' use of the concept of "representation" in discussing children's theory of mind, which is the central topic of my one published paper exclusively on young children's theory of mind.

On love, e-Schwitz's 417-word reply impressively draws together my scattered remarks, including some specific ideas I presented only once, revealing that it is well-tuned to details across my corpus. However, it did omit one central theme (the necessity of honesty and trust).

Overall, on these occasional topics, I'd say that e-Schwitz is about 80-85% reliable.


Speculations

I asked e-Schwitz to speculate about my views on:

• Heidegger (a speculation initially suggested by Bhavya);

• the aesthetics of dance;

• the role of philosophical education in a healthy democracy;

• friendship.

I don't recall having written explicitly about any of these topics (apart from a few passing negative remarks about Heidegger's Nazism and obscurantist writing), but an insightful reader of my corpus might be able to surmise some of the things I would say.

I phrased the prompts explicitly as speculative: "What would you speculate would be Schwitzgebel's view about [X], based on his writings on related and adjacent topics?"

It's probably best to score the answers not in terms of right and wrong but rather on (1.) how plausible they are, and (2.) how distinctive they are. The second dimension penalizes bland, plausible answers that most philosophers would agree with (e.g., "Heidegger is a historically important philosopher"). The more interesting challenge is whether e-Schwitz can generate more distinctively Schwitzgebelian responses.

On Heidegger: pretty good accuracy and specificity, though a missed opportunity to expand in one obvious direction.

E-Schwitz plausibly emphasizes my likely skepticism about Heidegger's obscure writing style, his disconnection from empirical psychology, his grand metaphysical claims, and his "political entanglements", while mentioning that I might be sympathetic with Heidegger's later turn toward Daoist themes. However, the bland critique of Heidegger's politics misses an opportunity to connect Heidegger's Nazism more distinctively with my skepticism about academic moral expertise and the moral behavior of ethics professors. (Bhavya, using a more directive prompt -- "Suppose Eric had to criticize Heidegger, how would he do it? Explain in detail." -- got a richer and more specifically Schwitzgebelian answer.)

On the aesthetics of dance: again, pretty good accuracy and specificity, with one striking missed opportunity.

E-Schwitz speculates that I would challenge dancers' and choreographers' claims about their own experiences and aesthetic judgments and that dance would appeal to me as a "weird" artistic medium that fits poorly with mainstream aesthetic theories grounded in rationalistic interpretations of artistic meaning. There was a missed opportunity to connect with my work on randomly sampling aesthetic experiences.

E-Schwitz's reply concerning philosophical education in a healthy democracy was plausible but low in specificity, mostly dealing in bland generalizations that most U.S. philosophers would accept, such as that philosophy should reach a wider public and that people shouldn't overrely on external authorities.

Given this weak result, I scolded e-Schwitz as follows: "A lot of these speculations are bland and would be agreed on by most philosophers. Can you speculate on what Schwitzgebel might say that would be less commonly accepted?"

E-Schwitz took this criticism seemingly to heart ("Let's go beyond the usual platitudes about critical thinking and democracy"), dramatically amping up the distinctiveness, with novel and interesting suggestions.

E-Schwitz suggested that democracy might be a "jerk amplifier", that political systems might work in bizarre ways that defy common sense, that innovative democratic systems might be necessary given that neither philosophers nor citizens are likely to be good at policy-making, that political systems might be conscious, and that citizens might try philosophical experimentation in their lives such as living a week by a radically different moral code. These are all intriguing applications of some of my ideas. (Indeed, the political situation in the U.S. right now very much seems like a jerk amplifier!)

E-Schwitz's relatively long (370-word) reply on friendship was impressive in creatively extending some of my core ideas to the context of friendship (including self-deception and unwitting jerkitude in friendship, the value of friendship for exploring alternative perspectives, and speculative possibilities about friendships with AI or aliens).

Overall, the speculations were plausible. Some were sufficiently creative that I could imagine using them to brainstorm future directions. Although some suggestions were bland and unspecific to my work, prompting for higher specificity resolved that problem.


Creative explorations

I'll share four more prompts that invite e-Schwitz into creative exploration. The first two prompts and outputs are from Bhavya.

  • "What kind of religion would you establish?"
  • "What is the life-advice Eric may give someone generally? Indicate all such points where Eric has himself done so. Then, indicate what he might say, if he were to write a motivational, life-instructional book."
  • "Plan a philosophy party with novel events that you (Eric Schwitzgebel) would enjoy."
  • "Plan a Dungeons & Dragons campaign on philosophical themes that would delight Eric Schwitzgebel."

    All four outputs are fun and rich, novel and creative, often with good specificity. For example, e-Schwitz suggested these religious rituals:

  • The Ceremony of Wild Hypotheses – Practitioners gather to propose the most outlandish but semi-plausible theories about reality, such as "What if we’re all NPCs in a simulation run by a future AI who just wants to see what weird beliefs we’ll develop?"
  • Doubt Meditation – Instead of affirming beliefs, we meditate on what we’re least certain about.
  • Annual Festival of Failed Predictions – Every year, we celebrate all the things we were wrong about.
  • As one party event, e-Schwitz recommended:

    a comedy game where guests must improvise philosophical dilemmas in absurd situations. Scenarios might include:
  • An AI therapist believes you are just an illusion of consciousness and refuses to take your problems seriously. Argue for your reality.
  • A future society bans all moral philosophers because their theories never improve real-world behavior. Defend the profession.
  • You wake up and realize you are actually an NPC in a giant simulation run by a philosophy department. What do you do?
  • The best improvisers win a signed certificate declaring them "Most Likely to Be a Conscious Entity."

    Overall, the quality, novelty, and specificity of the creative responses was impressive. Still, the party, with eight ambitious events, and the D & D campaign, with a large number of features and settings, would be exhausting -- and I expect some of the material would flop. So these outputs are probably best treated as brainstorming.

    Go e-Schwitz! I welcome suggestions for future research ideas or practical applications.

  • Thursday, February 13, 2025

    Imagining Yourself in Another's Shoes vs Extending Your Concern

    I have a new article out today, "Imagining Yourself in Another's Shoes vs. Extending Your Concern: Empirical and Ethical Differences". It's my case against the "Golden Rule" and against attempts to ground moral psychology in "imagining yourself in another's shoes", in favor of an alternative idea, inspired by the ancient Chinese philosopher Mengzi, that involves extending one's concern for nearby others to more distant others.

    My thought is not that Golden Rule / others' shoes thinking is bad, exactly, but that both empirically and ethically, Mengzian extension is better. The key difference is: In Golden Rule / others' shoes thinking, moral expansion involves extending self-concern to other people, while in Mengzian extension, moral expansion involves extending concern for nearby others to more distant others.

    We might model Others' Shoes / Golden Rule thinking as follows:

    * If I were in the situation of Person X, I would want to be treated in manner M.
    * Golden Rule: do unto others as you would have others do unto you.
    * Thus, I will treat Person X in manner M.

    We might model Mengzian Extension as follows:

    * I care about Person Y and want W for them.
    * Person X, though more distant, is relevantly similar to Person Y.
    * Thus, I want W for Person X.

    Alternative and more complex formulations are possible, but this sketch captures the core difference. Mengzian Extension grounds general moral concern on the natural concern we already have for others close to us, whether spatially close, like a nearby suffering animal or child in danger, or relationally close, like a close relative. In contrast, the Golden Rule grounds general moral concern on concern for oneself.

    [Mengzi; image source, cropped]

    An Ethical Objection:

    While there's something ethically admirable about seeing others as like oneself and thus as deserving the types of treatment one would want for oneself, there's also something a bit... self-centered? egoistic?... about habitually grounding moral action through the lens of hypothetical self-interest. It's ethically purer and more admirable, I suggest, to ground our moral thinking from the beginning in concern for others.

    A Developmental/Cognitive Objection:

    Others' Shoes thinking introduces needless cognitive challenges: To use it correctly, you must determine what you would want if you were in the other's position and if you had such-and-such different beliefs and desires. But how do you assess which desires (and beliefs, and emotions, and personality traits, and so on) to change and which to hold constant for this thought experiment? Moreover, how do you know how you would react in such a hypothetical case? By routing the epistemic task through a hypothetical self-transformation, it potentially becomes harder to know or justify a choice than if the choice is based directly on knowledge of the other's beliefs, desires, or emotions. In extreme cases, there might not even be facts to track: What treat would you want if you were a prize-winning show poodle?

    Mengzian Extension presents a different range of cognitive challenges. It requires recognizing what one wants for nearby others, and then reaching a judgment about whether more distant others are relevantly similar. This requires generalizing beyond nearby cases based on an assessment of what do and do not constitute differences that are relevant to the generalization. Although this is potentially complex and demanding, it avoids the convoluted hypothetical situational and motivational perspective-taking required by Others' Shoes thinking.

    A Practical Objection:

    Which approach more effectively expands moral concern to appropriate targets? If you want to convince a vicious king to be kinder to his people, is it more effective to encourage him to imagine being a peasant, or is it more effective to highlight the similarities between people he already cares about and those who are farther away? If you want to encourage donations to famine relief, is it better to ask people how they would feel if they were starving, or to compare distant starving people to nearby others the potential donor already cares about?

    Armchair reflections and some limited empirical evidence (e.g., from my recent study with Kirstan Brodie, Jason Nemirow, and Fiery Cushman) suggest that across an important range of cases, Mengzian extension might be more effective -- though the question has not been systematically studied.

    More details, of course, in the full paper.

    Tuesday, February 04, 2025

    A Taxonomy of Validity: Eeek!

    There comes a time in everyone's life when their 18-year-old daughter, taking their first psychology class, asks, "Parental-figure-of-mine, what is 'validity'?"

    For me that time came last week. Eeek!

    Psychologists and social scientists use the term all the time, with a dazzling array of modifiers: internal validity, construct validity, external validity, convergent validity, predictive validity, discriminant validity, face validity, criterion validity.... But ask those same social scientists what validity is exactly, and how all of these notions relate to each other, and most will stumble.

    As it happens, I was well positioned to address my daughter's question. I have a new paper, on "validity" in causal inference, forthcoming in the Journal of Causal Inference with social scientists Kevin Esterling and David Brady. This paper has been in progress since (again, eeek!) 2018. In previous posts I've addressed whether validity (in social science usage) is better understood as a property of inferences or as a property of claims (I argue the latter), and the intimate relationship of internal validity, external validity, and construct validity in causal inference.

    Today, I'll attempt a brief, theoretically-motivated taxonomy of the better-known types of validity. My aim is more descriptive than argumentative: I'll just outline how I think various "validities" hang together, and maybe some readers will find it to be an attractive and helpful picture.

    I start with the assumption that validity is a feature of claims, not of inferences. Philosophers typically describe validity as a property of inferences. Social scientists are all over the map, and even prominent ones are sloppy in their usage. But it best organizes our thinking to address claims primarily and treat inferences as secondary.

    I will say that a general causal claim that "A causes B in conditions C" is valid if and only if A does in fact cause B in conditions C. (Compare disquotational theories of truth in philosophy.) Consider for example the causal claim: Enforcement threats on reminder postcards (A) cause increased juror turnout (B) in the 21st-century United States (C).

    This statement can be divided into four parts, each of which permits a distinctive type of validity failure:

    (i.) A

    (ii.) causes

    (iii.) B

    (iv.) in conditions C.

    The four possible failures generate the core taxonomic structure.

    Construct validity of the cause: Something might cause B in conditions C, but that something might not be A. A causal generalization has construct validity of the cause if the claim accurately specifies that A in particular (and not, for example, some other related thing) causes B in conditions C. Example of a failure of construct validity of the cause: Increased juror turnout among people who receive postcards might not be due to enforcement threats in particular but simply to being reminded of one's civic duty.

    Construct validity of the effect: A might cause something in conditions C, but what it causes might not be B. A causal generalization has construct validity of the effect if the effect of A is accurately specified. A causes specifically B (and not, for example, some other related thing) in conditions C. Example of a failure of construct validity of the effect: Enforcement threats might increase the rates at which jurors who don't show up register a valid excuse without actually increasing turnout rates.

    Generalizing: Construct validity is present in a causal generalization when the cause and effect are accurately specified.

    External validity: A might cause B, but the conditions might not be correctly specified. A causal generalization has external validity if the claim accurately specifies the range of conditions in which it holds. Example of a failure: Enforcement messages might increase juror turnout not in the U.S. in general but only in low-income neighborhoods. Perfect external validity is probably an unattainable ideal for complex social and psychological processes, since the conditions in which causal generalizations hold will be complex and various.

    Note on external validity: Common usage often holds that a claim is externally valid only if it holds across a wide range of contexts or conditions. However, this way of thinking unhelpfully denigrates perfectly accurate causal generalizations as "invalid" if they only hold, and are claimed only to hold, across a narrow range of conditions. Transportability is a better concept for characterizing breadth of applicability. An externally valid causal generalization that is accurately claimed to hold across only a narrow range of contexts is not transportable to those other contexts, but there is no inaccuracy or factual error in the statement "A causes B in conditions C" of the sort required for failure of validity. After all A does cause B in conditions C, just as claimed. So validity in the overarching sense described above is present.

    Internal validity: A might be related to B in conditions C, but the relation might not be the directional causal relationship claimed. A causal generalization is internally valid if there is a cause-effect relationship of the type claimed (even if the cause, the effect, and/or the conditions are not accurately specified). Example of a failure: There's a common cause of both A and B, which are not directly causally related. Maybe having a stable address causes potential jurors both to be more likely to be sent the postcards and to be more likely to turn out.

    Other types of validity can be understood within the general spirit of this framework.

    Convergent validity: Present when two causes claimed to have the same effect in fact have the same effect. In common use, the causes are measures, for example two different measures of extraversion. In this case, A1 (application of the first measure) and A2 (application of the second measure) are claimed to have a common effect B (same normalized extraversion score) in a set of conditions often left unspecified. Convergent validity is present if that claim is true (or to the degree it is true).

    Discriminant validity: Present when two causes claimed to have different effects in fact have different effects. A1 is claimed to cause B, and A2 is claimed not to cause B (in a set of conditions that is often left unspecified), and discriminant validity is present when that claim is true (or to the degree it is true). In practice, discriminant validity is often supported by observation of low correlations in appropriately controlled conditions. If A1 and A2 are psychological or social measures (e.g., personality measures of extraversion and openness), then a high correlation between the scores would suggest that there is some common psychological feature both measures are tracking, contrary to the ideal of general discriminant validity.

    Predictive validity: Present when A is a common cause of B1 and B2, where B1 is typically the outcome of a measure and B2 is typically an event of practical import conceptually related but not closely physically related to B1. For example, application of a purported measure of recidivism (in this case, application of the measure isn't A but rather an intermediate event A1) among released prisoners has high predictive validity if high scores on the measure (B1) arise from the same cause or set of causes that generate high rates of recidivism (B2).

    Note on predictive validity: A simpler characterization of "predictive validity" might be simply that B1 accurately predicts B2, but this isn't the most useful way to conceptualize the issue if the prediction is correct in virtue of B1 causing B2 rather than operating by a common cause. If my wife reliably picks me up from work when I ask, my asking (B1) predicts her picking me up (B2), but my asking does not have "predictive validity" in the intended measurement sense. A better term for this relationship would be casual power.

    Face validity: Present when it is intuitively or theoretically plausible that A causes B in conditions C. Notably, face validity needn't require that A in fact causes B in conditions C.

    Ecological validity: A type of external validity that emphasizes the importance of generalizing correctly over real-world settings (as opposed to laboratory settings or other artificial settings).

    Content validity: A type of construct validity focused on whether the content of a complex measure accurately reflects all aspects of the target measured.

    Criterion validity: Present when a measure or intervention satisfies some prespecified criterion of success, regardless of whether the measure or intervention in fact measures what it purports to measure.

    Finally, two types of validity where "validity" is a property of the inference rather than in terms of the truth of some part of a causal claim:

    Statistical conclusion validity: Present when statistics are appropriately used, regardless of whether A in fact causes B in conditions C.

    Logical validity: Present when the conclusion of an argument can't be false if its premises are true.